AC+ NBA 4/18


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

QUICK HITTERS (4/18)

- Today's main slate features 5 games. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v LAC at 232.5   points. The game with the lowest over/under is POR v CHA at 217.5 points.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to finally be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

CJ McCollum MORE than 26.5 Points

The Blazers will once again be missing Damian Lillard, clearing the way for CJ to be the go-to scorer for POR. CHA is a below average defensive team, and I expect CJ to take a ton of shots tonight; he took 26 last time out, and I think he’ll be somewhere around that number tonight as well. Also, each game that goes by I feel more confident in McCollum - he’s still playing his way back from injury and I think he’ll continue to get more comfortable as time goes on.

Paul George MORE than 24.5 Points

I would make this play NOW before Kawhi is potentially ruled out and the line rises. Even if Kawhi plays, I still expect PG to be the go-to guy, as Kawhi hasn’t played in a few games and could even have a minutes limit. That being said, I think it’s unlikely that Kawhi plays tonight. The most important thing to keep in mind here, though, is the matchup; MIN plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the 3rd most points, so PG should have a fairly easy time scoring more than 24 tonight.

Chris Boucher LESS than 3.5 Steals & Blocks

I understand Boucher is due for tons of minutes tonight against a bad OKC team. I also understand that he’s an excellent shot blocker. However, I don’t think there is a guy in the entire NBA that I would feel confident in saying he will get 4+ blocks and steals in any game. Of course it’s possible, but it’s pretty unlikely, and I don’t think his matchup against a bad team makes Boucher any more likely to do so.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

NEED TO KNOW

Augustin, Brown, House, Wall Out: Without Wall in the lineup, I don’t love any of the HOU guard options. I do, however, like Kelly Olynyk ($6,800 DK and $6,300 FD) to get a slight value/usage boost. Olynyk has been excellent as of late, and he should get more shots up as a result of Wall sitting tonight.

MCW, Otto Porter Out, Ennis, Bamba Questionable: Even though Ennis (a starter) is potentially Out tonight, I don’t think it impacts this ORL team too much. There are too many cooks in the kitchen for the Magic, and none of them are cooking up great meals. They’re poor offensively, and it’s a different guy every night who happens to catch a little bit of fire.

Dort Questionable, Aleksej Probable, SGA, Muscala Out: Again, similar situation here to the Magic. Even though Dort being Out would open up some shots, I think there are too many potential OKC guys that could get those shots, making each of them too risky of a play. 

OG, Siakam, Lowry, VanVleet Out: Without all these guys, there is TONS of value to be found on the Raptors. I like a lot of guys, but my favorite is Paul Watson ($3,700 DK and $4,500 FD); he scored 30 last game, and I think he has a chance to play well again without VanVleet in the lineup as well. I also like Trent ($5,600 DK and $6,100 FD), who’s coming off some rest and should get 15+ shots up tonight, with a chance to smash his price tag against a bad defensive OKC team.

Ball, Hayward, Monk Out, Washington, Graham Questionable: The prices for these top Hornets guys have really skied (Bridges, Rozier, McDaniels, etc), making each of them a risky option tonight.

Lillard Out: Without Lillard (again), I’m going right to CJ ($8,700 DK and $7,900 FD), who becomes the go-to scoring option for POR. I also like Anfernee Simons ($3,600 DK and $4,000 FD), who played 30 minutes last game and scored 16 points, making him a solid cheap option tonight.

Bagley, Holmes Out: With a depleted front court, I don’t hate Whiteside ($5,500 DK and $5,400 FD), who’s a great point per minute guy and will have a chance to stay on the court for long periods of time tonight as a result of the pace at which Dallas plays (3rd slowest in the NBA).

Ibaka, Beverley Out, Kawhi Questionable: Shocker! If Kawhi is out, I’m going with Paul George ($9,300 DK and $9,800 FD). I don’t have to tell you much here... George has scored more than 30 in his past 5, and I think he continues that tonight against a really bad MIN defense.

4/18 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Raptors Chalk

With Lowry, FVV, Siakam, and OG Out, I like basically every remaining Raptors player. I think Flynn, Watson, Trent, Boucher, and maybe even Yuta will all be highly owned and are all excellent plays. I’m specifically excited about Watson, who put up 30 points last game (with VanVleet in the lineup), and is very cheap on both sites. Trent is also an obvious play. He’s coming off a game of rest, and after seeing his 44 point game, we all know what he’s capable of when given a lot of opportunities.

Kelly Olynyk ($6,800 DK and $6,300 FD)

Kelly has quietly had an outstanding stint with the Rockets. He’s still underpriced, and I think he gets some extra usage, shots, and touches as a result of John Wall not being in the lineup tonight. I think even though Wall’s absence should open up some opportunity for the HOU guards, it’ll actually just shift the game plan to more of a Christian Wood/Kelly Olynyk type of game for HOU.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Kristaps Porzingis ($9,000 DK and $8,800 FD)

You might be wondering why Porzingis is in my GPP core, because there is no one out for the Mavs. But, I love Kristap’s matchup tonight. The Kings are without Bagley and Holmes, leaving Hassan Whiteside to cover Porzingis. Whiteside is an excellent rim protector and post defender, but he is certainly not good when it comes to getting out on stretch bigs, which is why I think Kristaps kills him on the perimeter tonight. Additionally, SAC gives up the most points in the NBA, and Porzingis is coming off 5 straight 20+ scoring games. 

D’Angelo Russell ($6,100 DK and $6,500 FD)

Russell is our 2nd highest projected plus/minus guy tonight. He’s going up against a good LAC defense, but they are TERRIBLE at guarding players like Russell. D’Angelo is also coming off a really bad game, and I think he bounces back tonight on NBATV against a LAC team that is playing really good basketball. Russell is still working his way back from his injury, and I think tonight could be a breakout night for him.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players: 

  • Malik Beasley (MIN)

Questionable Players: 

  • Jaylen Nowell (D) - MIN

    Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!