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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
QUICK HITTERS (4/16)
- Today's main slate features 10 games. Nobody is on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is NOP v WAS at 242.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is NYK v DAL at 211 points.
MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Unbelievably excited to finally be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys!
We're 5/6 so far (and we missed Curry by .5 points), so hopefully we can continue that momentum today!!
Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.
Zion Williamson MORE than 30.5 Points
Before the last game, Zion had scored more than 30 in the previous 3 games and was on a huge roll. I think he and Ingram share the load a little bit more tonight, but I still really like his chances of scoring more than 30 against a WAS team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the most points to opposing teams. Zion only had 25 last time out (but it was against the NYK, who are the best defense in basketball), but he’ll see a FAR DIFFERENT defensive scheme, or lack thereof, tonight against the Wizards.
Terry Rozier MORE than 3.5 made threes
Rozier averages 3.3 made threes per game this season, but I expect him to make more than 3 tonight; he’s playing against a BKN team that gives up the 9th most threes in the NBA to opposing teams. More importantly, though, Rozier should get more shots up than normal due to the absence of Graham, in addition to (potentially) Wanamaker and Washington. A lot of this play depends on whether Rozier gets hot or not, but I could see him shooting 9-12 threes tonight, giving him a good chance to make 4.
Joel Embiid MORE than 30.5 Points
I’m banking on a couple things for PHI tonight. I’m hoping either Tobias or Dwight sits; if Tobias sits, Embiid would see higher usage, and if Howard sits, Embiid would see increased minutes. Embiid also made comments today about the MVP race, stating that he’s been “dominant” all season. Regardless of who plays, I don’t see Embiid following up that statement with fewer than 30 points tonight, especially in a nationally televised ESPN game.
Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!
NEED TO KNOW
Ibaka, Beverley Out, Kawhi Questionable: If Kawhi sits again, I’m going to Paul George ($9,100 DK and $9,500 FD) for like the 3rd game in a row; he’s the clear go-to option when Kawhi is out and he’s played really well in his absence. If Kawhi plays, I don’t see too much value on LAC tonight.
Tobias Harris, Howard Questionable, Hill Out: If Tobias sits, I would like whoever moves into the starting lineup for him as a result. However, I wouldn’t want that guy if it was Thybulle, who is only a threat defensively. I do think Embiid ($10,500 DK and $10,200 FD) gets a good amount of value if Tobias and/or Howard sit; either guy sitting would lead to either more minutes (Howard sits) or more shots (Tobias sits) for Embiid.
Smith Jr, McGruder, Plumlee, Grant, Joseph, Ellington Out, Diallo Questionable: Wow. TONS of news here. I think it all results in virtually every remaining rotation player on the Pistons getting a pretty solid value boost. I definitely like Stewart ($4,400 DK and $4,800 FD), who should start at Center and get tons of minutes. I also like Jackson ($5,300 DK and $5,500 FD), who has a good chance to be the leading scorer for DET tonight. There is TONS of value to be found on DET tonight, even besides these guys.
Ball, Darling, Graham, Hayward, Monk Out, Washington Doubtful, Wanamaker Questionable: Also tons of news here. A lot of the guys who play for CHA tonight will have a solid value boost as a result of these inactives. My favorite plays would be McDaniels ($5,200 DK and $5,800 FD) and Rozier ($8,100 DK and $7,000 FD); they’ll both get tons of minutes and will see more shots/usage than normal.
OG, Lowry, Siakam Out, Trent Doubtful, Bembry Questionable: I must admit, I’m a little concerned about playing Fred VanVleet in his first game back from a long injury; he could be on a minutes limit and/or not be at his best. I definitely like Boucher ($7,100 DK and $7,500 FD), who will have to become more of a scorer tonight in order for the Raptors to stay in it. I would also play Trent if he somehow plays.
Lavine Out, Satoransky Probable: I think Vucevic ($9,700 DK and $9,000 FD) probably sees the largest value boost as a result of Lavine being out, as he becomes the clear primary option offensively. I also think whoever starts in Lavine’s place will get a little boost.
Robinson, Burks Out, Noel Questionable: Not huge news here, but I would play Taj ($3,800 DK and $4,100 FD) if Noel sits again. Gibson would become the starting Center most likely and would be locked in for 25+ minutes.
4/16 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Chris Boucher ($7,100 DK and $7,500 FD)
With Lowry, Siakam, OG, and (probably) Trent Out, Boucher is the most appealing guy on the Raps to me. VanVleet is in his first game back after a long injury, and I anticipate he’ll either a) have a minutes restriction, b) not be nearly at his best, or c) a combination of both. For those reasons, I think Boucher is the most sure-think on TOR tonight. He should be locked in for around 35 minutes tonight, which gives him a chance to smash his price tag.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,400 DK and $4,800 FD)
At this price tag, with the presumed starting spot tonight (Plumlee Out), as well as what should be increased usage and shot attempts (Grant, Ellington, Joseph, etc Out), I’m loving me some Stewart tonight. In addition to what should be increased minutes and usage, he’s playing against an OKC team that gives up the 7th most points in the NBA and is the 5th worst team in the league at guarding Centers.
Jalen McDaniels ($5,200 DK and $5,800 FD)
McDaniels has been a nice little find for the Hornets, and with Ball, Hayward, Graham, Washington (D), and Wanamaker (Q) potentially sitting, I love Jalen’s chances to return value tonight. He’s only improving as he gets games under his belt, and he’ll have a chance to get more shots up and have higher usage tonight with some of their higher scorers out.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Killian Hayes ($3,500 DK and $3,800 FD)
Hayes put up 8-6-3 in 25 minutes last time out, and that was WITH Grant, Plumlee, Joseph, and Ellington in the lineup. Without these guys, I absolutely love Hayes tonight (he might be my favorite play on the slate). He’s a very crafty scorer/playmaker, and I could see him garnering 35+ minutes and a 25-8-8 ceiling stat line tonight. Although those stats aren’t likely, I love his chances to return value at the least.
Brandon Ingram ($8,500 DK and $8,300 FD)
If last game is any indication, Zion and Brandon are going to be more of a 1a and 1b option rather than primary and secondary options. For this reason, in addition to the fact that they are matched up with WAS, who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the most points, I really like Ingram tonight. I like Zion a lot too, but at 10k, he obviously has to do a lot more to return value. I think BI is the safer play.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NOP)
- Josh Hart (NOP)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
- Josh Hall (OKC)
- Mike Muscala (OKC)
- Aleksej Pokusevski (OKC)
- James Harden (BKN)
- Tyler Johnson (BKN)
- Michael Carter-Williams (ORL)
- Otto Porter (ORL)
- Jamal Murray (DEN)
- D.J Augustin (HOU)
- Sterling Brown (HOU)
- Danuel House (HOU)
- De’Anthony Melton (MEM)
- Justise Winslow (MEM)
- Victor Oladipo (MIA)
- Malik Beasley (MIN)
- Trey Lyles (SAS)
- Mo Bamba (Q) - ORL
- Jalen Harris (D) - TOR
- Brandon Clarke (Q) - MEM
- Andre Igoudala (Q) - MIA
- Jaylen Nowell (Q) - MIN
- Gorgui Dieng (Q) - SAS
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!