AC+ NBA 4/12


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)


- Today's main slate features 9 games. CHI, DEN, MEM, MIN, NOP, ORL, SAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v MIN at 240.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v NYK at 205.5 points.


Porzingis, Reddick Questionable, Kleber Probable: I anticipate Porzingis sitting tonight (because it’s a back-to-back), in which case I would like Luka ($10,700 DK and $10,200 FD) a little bit more than I already do. I also wouldn’t hate Porzingis ($8,900 DK and $8,700 FD) if he were to play, as I don’t think Embiid will get out to guard his three point attempts effectively.

Irving, Harden, Aldridge, Johnson Out: I’m a little nervous about KD tonight just because I’m not sure what his minutes will look like, but he could definitely smash his price tag in only 25 minutes. I also think you have to like Joe Harris ($5,600 DK and $5,300 FD) tonight, who should get more shot attempts than normal as a result of Harden/Irving sitting.

MIN not yet submitted: Keep an eye on MIN’s injury report tonight. It’s not listed yet, but they are on a back-to-back, so I could see Towns potentially sitting.

MEM not yet submitted: Same thing here as with MIN. I could see Val/Morant potentially sitting as a result of the back-to-back.

Conley Out, Clarkson Questionable: Without Conley tonight, I’m almost positive that Ingles ($5,700 DK and $5,500 FD) will get the start, which makes me like him a little bit more than I already do against a TERRIBLE defensive WAS team. I also like Mitchell ($9,200 DK and $9,000 FD), who’s been playing incredibly as of late and should continue that tonight against WAS.

Beal Probable, Bryant Out: I don’t hate Beal ($8,900 DK and $8,200 FD) tonight, especially on FD where he’s very underpriced. He’s coming off some rest, and I could see him bringing his A-game against the best team in the NBA.

Wiseman, Paschall, Oubre Out: Without these guys in the lineup, I’m definitely liking Curry ($10,300 DK and $10,100 FD), who’s been on an absolute tear recently and should continue to get up tons of shots and have a high usage rating. I also like Draymond ($6,700 DK and $7,300 FD), who should get more minutes at the big-man position as a result of Wiseman’s injury.


This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups


In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Nicolas Claxton ($3,100 DK and $4,000 FD)

Without Lamarcus Aldridge, Claxton should get a lot more minutes than he normally does at the Center position. Even if he doesn’t get the start (which I anticipate he might), I would be comfortable playing him at his miniscule price tag (especially on DK); he’s going up against a MIN team that plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA, gives up the 3rd most points, and is REALLY BAD at guarding players who stretch the floor vertically like Claxton. We currently have Claxton projected as our number 1 value play AND the guy with the highest ownership tonight, so he’s a must-have in your lineup for Cash games!

Zion Williamson ($9,700 DK and $10,000 FD)

Zion has finally surpassed 10k on FD (and for good reason), but I’m still going to him without much hesitation. The Pelicans have completely entrusted Zion with their organization, and it’s resulted in him taking more shots and having higher usage than he did at the beginning of the season. He’s been on an ABSOLUTE tear recently, and I don’t envision that halting against a SAC team that gives up the 2nd most points in the NBA. Get Zion at below 10k on DK while you can… because you won’t be able to for long.

Joe Ingles ($5,700 DK and $5,500 FD)

Without Mike Conley tonight, I would be SHOCKED if Jingles didn’t get the start - he always does when any of the starters (besides Gobert) sit. He’s also playing against WAS, who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the most points to opposing teams, so I like Ingles a lot tonight. Finally, without the bench minutes/usage/shots from Clarkson, Ingles should get slightly more minutes and shots than normal.


Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DK & $8,500 FD)

Gobert has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last 4, which is part of why I LOVE him tonight against the Wizards. Both Conley and Clarkson being out could bump his usage a bit, but even if it doesn’t, he should have no problem sucking up rebounds against a team that ranks 6th worst in the NBA in DREB allowed per game this season. At just 7.9K, I like Gobert to 5X tonight and think he has 6-7X potential, making him a really strong look for GPP contests.

Ricky Rubio ($5,100 DK & $6,100 FD) 

I know Rubio’s minutes are getting cut with Russell’s return, but he still went for a ridiculous 17-4-9 last night against the Bulls. He draws another amazing matchup tonight against a Brooklyn team without both Kyrie and James Harden. I expect this to be a fast paced game, and for Rubio to play in the 25 minute range. His 5.1K salary on DraftKings is incredibly enticing on a night where his ownership should be under 10%. At 6.1K on Fanduel, I’m less likely to go there, but I still think he makes for an interesting look.

Cole Anthony ($5,300 DK & $5,500 FD)

This is really a risky play, but Anthony’s minutes and production have ramped up in each of the past 3 games since his return from injury. There honestly aren’t many exciting players left on the Magic, but Anthony is one of the few bright spots. I think he continues his good play tonight against a Spurs team that has been below average this year against the PG position, and has played at an above average pace. You should be able to grab Anthony at low ownership and he could absolutely break out for 35+ DK points tonight.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players: 

  • Anthony Davis (LAL)

  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • George Hill (PHI)
  • Gary Harris (ORL)
  • Otto Porter (ORL)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Gorgui Dieng (SAS)
  • Nikeil Alexander-Walker (NOP)
  • Lonzo Ball (NOP)
  • Josh Hart (NOP)
  • Marvin Bagley (SAC)
  • Sterling Brown (HOU)
  • Danuel House (HOU)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Malik Beasley (MIN)

    Questionable Players: 

    • Kyle Kuzma (Q) - LAL
    • Marc Gasol (Q) - LAL
    • Wesley Matthews (Q) - LAL
    • Chuma Okeke (Q) - ORL
    • Garrett Temple (Q) - CHI
    • Jamal Murray (Q) - DEN

    Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!