AC+ NBA 4/10


Announcements

1) We have some extremely exciting announcements coming out before the end of April on a new partnership for Analytic City! New sections will be introduced to our newsletters and new opportunities available for our users! 

2) If you have any questions about how to use any of our tools, DM us on Twitter!

3) If you're looking for an DFS Discord server, we have our very own channel in a group with over 1,000 active DFS members! Join here: DFS Coach/Analytic City Discord!

4) There was some very hard to predict Injury news last night. I predicted certain guys (Sabonis, Brogdon, Capela) to sit, and they played. This is something we’ve gotten used to during this NBA season, but I just want to reiterate that you guys always have the opportunity to use our “Injury Updates” tab which can provide real-time injury news updates. For example, after we learned about all of the Bucks players resting last night, there was significant value to be found with the remaining Bucks players. 

Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

QUICK HITTERS (4/10)

- Today's main slate features 7 games. GSW, HOU, PHI, and WAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v UTA at 231  points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHI v OKC at 217.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Hood Probable, Lowry Doubtful, VanVleet, Siakam Out: With the starting backcourt likely out and Siakam sitting as well, I like the Raptors chalk A LOT tonight. My two favorite guys are definitely Boucher ($6,800 DK and $6,500 FD) and OG ($6,600 DK and $7,700 FD), who should pick up the majority of the scoring for the Raptors and have very large games. If Lowry somehow plays (and isn’t on a minutes restriction), I’m probably playing him.

Harden, Johnson Out: I know people will be very high on KD tonight, but I’m definitely quite hesitant. He mentioned to the media that he won’t be playing his normal minutes/role for awhile (because he’s trying to gradually pick up his play), so I don’t think he has one of his classic KD nights tonight. With a price in the $9,000 range on both sites, and what should be very high ownership, I’m fading KD tonight.

Kuzma, Gasol, Caruso Questionable, Lebron, AD Out: If Kuzma sits, I would put whoever starts in his place into your lineup. That player will likely get more minutes and shot opportunities than normal. If Kuzma plays, there isn’t much value on the LAL tonight.

Roby, Muscala, SGA Out, Bazley Probable: With Bazley and Dort both likely to be reinserted back into the lineup, I’m staying away from OKC tonight. They’re incredibly hard to predict - 7 of their 9 players scored in double figures last time out - and each of their players takes a slight value hit due to Dort and Bazley coming back.

76ers not yet submitted: The Sixers haven’t released their injury report yet, but they’re on a back and I could therefore definitely see Embiid sitting tonight, in which case I would get Howard ($4,700 DK and $4,300 FD) right into your lineup.

Grant, McGruder, Ellington Out, Plumlee Questionable: If Plumlee sits, I’m definitely going right back to Isaiah Stewart ($4,500 DK and $4,900 FD); not only would he get more minutes and touches than normal, but he’s playing against a team that is TERRIBLE at guarding players like himself and will be without Nurkic tonight. If Plumlee plays, I like Killian Hayes ($3,700 DK and $4,100 FD); he’s getting more and more minutes after coming back from his injury, and he takes a lot of shots while he’s in there.

Nurkic Out: This is a simple one: Without Nurkic, I’m going to Kanter ($5,900 DK and $5,000 FD), who will get the start and be in a great spot to return value and potentially smash.

Warriors not yet submitted: I could see either Steph or Draymond sitting as a result of a back-to-back, in which case I would go right to Wiggins or Oubre. Keep an eye out for this injury report.

Wizards not yet submitted: Same thing here as with the Warriors: I could definitely see Beal sitting as a result of the B2B, in which case I would play Russell Westbrook without hesitation.

4/10 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Raptors Chalk (Boucher, OG, and/or Lowry)

Without VanVleet, Siakam, and (probably) Lowry, the Raptors Chalk (mainly OG and Boucher) are looking great to me; despite CLE playing at a below average pace and giving up fewer points than average to opposing teams, I think OG and Boucher would simply see too much usage and minutes to not be played. If Lowry somehow plays (and doesn’t have a minutes restriction), I could definitely see playing him as well.

Isaiah Stewart ($4,500 DK and $4,900 FD) OR Hamidou Diallo ($5,000 DK and $5,400 FD)

If Plumlee sits, I’m playing Stewart; he would be the starting Center, and at a price tag in the $4,000’s, I would find him very tough to look away from in that case. If Plumlee plays, I’m playing Hamidou Diallo; he should be aggressive off the bench without the offensive production of Grant, McGruder, and Ellington. Both these guys are going up against a POR team that gives up the 4th most points in the entire NBA, so they should be able to put the ball in the hoop easily tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Enes Kanter ($5,900 DK and $5,000 FD)

I’m not sure what Kanter’s ownership will look like tonight, but we currently have him at around 10%, which makes him a solid GPP play. He’s going up against the Pistons, who are TERRIBLE at guarding players like Kanter and will likely be without Plumlee, and Kanter should get the start tonight without Nurkic in the lineup. Kanter is in a potential smash spot with what could be a resounding double-double performance tonight.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,800 DK and $8,500 FD)

Mitchell, who’s coming off a 37-4-5 performance, gets to play against the SAC Kings tonight, who play at the 12th fastest pace in the NBA and give up the most points to opposing teams. UTA is also without Clarkson, one of the highest usage guys on the team, giving Donovan a better chance at scoring a lot of points. Furthermore, the Kings are the 3rd worst team in the NBA at guarding SG’s, so basically everything is pointing towards Mitchell having a great game tonight.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players: 

  • Jarrett Allen (CLE)

  • Larry Nance (CLE)
  • Dylan Windler (CLE)
  • Marvin Bagley (SAC)
  • Eric Paschall (GSW)
  • Danuel House (HOU)
  • Daniel Gafford (WAS)

    Questionable Players: 

    • Jordan Clarkson (D) - UTA
    • Juwan Morgan (P) - UTA
    • John Wall (Q) - HOU

    Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!