AC+ NBA 4/09


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)


- Today's main slate features 9 games. CHI, LAC, MIL are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is GSW v WAS at 239.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is MEM v NYK at 215.5 points.


Turner Out, Sabonis, Brogdon Questionable: If either Sabonis or Brogdon plays (and isn’t on a minutes restriction) while the other sits, I would strongly consider playing the one that plays. If both sit, I would find it pretty tough to look away from McConnell ($5,600 DK and $6,100 FD), who led the team in minutes last game and put up a ridiculous 19-15-3 stat line.

Winslow, Melton Out, Clarke Questionable: These guys being out would normally free up some value, but with a tough matchup against a Knicks team that plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and gives up the fewest points, I’m staying away from Grizzlies guys tonight.

Capela, Gallinari Questionable, Collins, Hunter, Reddish Out: If Capela sits again, it’ll be tough for me to look away from Okongwu ($4,000 DK and $4,700 FD) on DK, as he put up 13-1-11 in his start last time out without Clint. I also like Trae ($9,200 DK and $8,100 FD), who’s in a great matchup against a CHI team that plays at a fast pace, gives up a lot of points, and is bad at guarding players like Young.

Alexander-Walker, Hart Out, Lonzo, Ingram, Lewis Questionable: If Ingram sits, I think Zion ($9,000 DK and $9,500 FD) looks like a good play despite his rising price; the Sixers play at the 6th fastest pace in the league and the NOP would be missing a lot of production, leaving the door wide open for Zion to smash. I also like Lonzo ($7,900 DK and $7,500 FD) if he plays and isn’t on a minutes restriction; he’s a mid-tier player who would likely garner lots of usage without Ingram, Walker, and Hart out there to create.

Giannis Questionable, Tucker Out: If Giannis sits again, I’m going right back to Middleton ($8,100 DK and $8,000 FD) despite his poor performance last night; he’s a professional scorer and I like his chances of bouncing back against a below average defense that gives up the most 3 pointers in the NBA (CHA). I also think Portis ($5,700 DK and $5,800 FD) is tough to look away from if Giannis sits, as he put up 20-2-14 in 35 minutes last night.

Jamal Murray Out: Murray has been out for a couple games and the prices have adjusted, so I don’t love anyone from DEN. If I had to pick someone it would be Monte Morris ($3,900 DK and $3,800 FD) just because he’s too cheap and with the ~20 minutes he should get, it would be tough for him to not return value.

Clippers not yet reported: I could see the Clippers resting either Leonard or George (because they’re on a back-to-back), in which case I would like the other one who plays. If both sit, I would like the other high-usage players on the team (Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, etc).


This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups


In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Steph Curry ($9,900 DK and $9,600 FD)

Steph Curry is probably my favorite top-tier play tonight, and I’m sure you can guess the reason: he’s playing the Washington Wizards. Not only do they play at the fastest pace in the NBA and give up the most points to opposing teams, but they are the worst team in the league at guarding Point Guards. Curry is coming off a 41-4-6 performance and has had 2 days of rest, so I like him a lot tonight.

T.J McConnell ($5,600 DK and $6,100 FD) *If Brogdon sits*

I’m going to go ahead and assume Brogdon will sit given the fact that he’s sat the past 2 games that he’s been questionable. Even though he didn’t start the last game without Brogdon in the lineup, TJ led the team in minutes (!) and put up 19-15-3 in those minutes. The Magic are also the 5th worst team in the NBA at guarding Point Guards and are a below average defensive team in general, so I think McConnell continues his hot streak tonight.

Goga Bitadze ($3,800 DK and $4,900 FD) *If Sabonis sits*

Similar to Brogdon, I’m assuming Sabonis sits tonight as he’s been questionable for awhile now. If he does, I love Goga on DK (less so on FD). he put up 14-5-3 last time out in 25 minutes, and I see him getting similar production today if Sabonis sits again (Turner has already been ruled out). If Sabonis plays, I no longer think Bitadze would be a good play.


Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,100 DK and $9,900 FD)

I’m assuming ATL will be without Clint Capela tonight, in which case Vucevic should absolutely go to work; he would be going up against Onyeka Okongwu (and Nathan Knight off the bench) in what would likely be his best matchup of the season. He’s also a lower price than he was in ORL despite becoming a larger part of the offense as each game goes on - he’s only going to get more comfortable in CHI and I think tonight is a night that pushes him in that direction.

Wendell Carter ($6,000 DK and $6,800 FD) 

Carter has played well in his first handful of games with the Magic, and it’s earned him some recognition. He’s locked in at the starting Center position, and after releasing Khem Birch, ORL is sending him a message that he’s the big-man of their future. That’s why I like him tonight against an IND team that plays at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA, gives up the 10th most points, and will likely be without Sabonis in addition to Turner, giving Carter a very easy matchup against Bitadze.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players: 

  • Karim Mane (ORL)

  • Otto Porter (ORL)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • John Henson (NYK)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • Evan Fournier (BOS)
  • Malik Beasley (MIN)
  • Garrett Temple (CHI)
  • George Hill (MIL)
  • Lamelo Ball (CHA)
  • Gordon Hayward (CHA)
  • Malik Monk (CHA)
  • PJ Tucker (MIL)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Eric Gordon (HOU)
  • Danuel House (HOU)
  • John Wall (HOU)
  • David Nwaba (HOU)
  • Serge Ibaka (LAC)
  • Eric Paschall (GSW)
  • Daniel Gafford (WAS)

Questionable Players: 

  • Jaylen Nowell (D) - MIN

  • Josh Okogie (P) - MIN
  • Gorgui Dieng (Q) - SAS
  • Lonnie Walker (Q) - SAS
  • Bradley Beal (P) - WAS

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!