AC+ NBA 4/08


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

QUICK HITTERS (4/08)

- Today's main slate features 7 games. DAL, OKC, PHO, UTA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is POR v UTA at 232.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v MIA at 203.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Bembry, Hood, Lowry, VanVleet, Watson, McCaw Out: Without all of these guys tonight, I’m going right back to the Raptors starters that I’ve been high on; Pascal ($8,500 DK and $8,700 FD), Trent ($6,300 DK and $6,700 FD), and OG ($7,000 DK and $8,000 FD) are all going to get significantly more usage than normal, and they’re going up against a CHI team that plays at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the 10th most points. I also like Boucher ($5,700 DK and $6,000 FD), who’s locked in for 30+ minutes at the big-man position tonight.

OKC Thunder not yet submitted: I’m going to assume that the Thunder will be missing their usual cast of characters tonight (SGA, Horford, Dort, Bazley, Roby, etc), but I don’t see much value on this team as the prices of the other players have adjusted and the Thunder have a tough matchup against a CLE team that plays at the 8th slowest pace and gives up the 11th most points in the league.

Giannis Doubtful, Tucker Out: Without Giannis, Middleton ($7,800 DK and $8,200 FD) should be a solid play. He and Holiday ($8,100 DK and $8,800 FD) will be the primary playmakers and scorers and should get more shots than normal (assuming Giannis sits).

Grant, McGruder Out, Plumlee, Okafor Questionable: Okay, a lot to unpack here. On the big man front, if Plumlee doesn’t play, I’m going right to Stewart ($4,100 DK and $3,700 FD), who would get the start and be in a smash spot position. Also, with Grant out, the other DET guys will definitely get some extra shots up, so I think there’s a good chance for A BUNCH of them to return value, especially against the 2nd worst defense in the NBA. My favorite is Bey ($4,300 DK and $5,100 FD), who’s locked in for 30+ minutes and should be one of the go-to guys offensively.

Allen, Nance, Windler Out: The prices for the other Cavs have adequately adjusted, and I don’t see much value in the CLE frontcourt tonight as a result. I do like Sexton ($7,600 DK and $7,500 FD), though, who’s playing against an OKC team that is REALLY bad at guarding players like himself.

Clarkson Doubtful, Morgan Out: Clarkson being out likely results in a few extra minutes for Ingles ($5,700 DK and $5,200 FD), but there isn't a huge impact on anyone else in the lineup, and probably not even a significant one on Ingles himself.

4/08 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

OG Anunoby ($7,000 DK and $8,000 FD)

After getting ejected last night, I think OG comes out with vengeance and has a great game tonight, especially without Lowry, VanVleet, Watson, McCaw, etc in the lineup. In addition to the increased shots and usage he should get as a result of the starting backcourt missing, he’s in a great matchup against a CHI team that plays at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA, gives up the 10th most points to opposing teams, and is the 4th worst team at defending PF’s.

Khris Middleton ($7,800 DK and $8,200 FD)

I was between Middleton and Holiday tonight for my second Cash play, but I ended up deciding on Middleton (and I feel solid about it). Although I have a similar amount of confidence in each of them to score points, Middleton is slightly cheaper on both sites which tips the scale in his favor. Also, I anticipate Jrue Holiday using a lot of his energy on the defensive end, where he will have his hands full with Luka Doncic. I think Middleton handles the scoring load tonight while Holiday focuses on the defensive end.

Saddiq Bey ($4,300 DK and $5,100 FD)

Without their leading scorer (Grant), and potentially Plumlee as well, the Pistons will have to find scoring from their role players. Bey put up 25 points last time out, and I could definitely see him being the leading scorer for the Pistons tonight against a SAC team that gives up the 2nd most points in the NBA. At a fairly cheap price on both sites, I feel pretty solid about Bey’s chances to return value tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Theo Maledon ($5,300 DK and $5,400 FD)

The Thunder will likely be shorthanded yet again tonight, and Maledon remains at the top of my list for this team. He led the team in minutes last time out with 36 and put up 25-5-5 in those minutes, and his price tag hasn’t increased much since he’s picked up his play recently. Although he’s in a tough matchup against a slow-paced, good defensive CLE team, I think his low price tag and what should be 30+ minutes will be enough for him to return value tonight.

Stanley Johnson ($3,000 DK and $4,400 FD)

I don’t love Johnson tonight on FD, but boy oh boy do I love him on DK at the price minimum. With only 8 active players, and against a bad CHI defense, Stanley should be locked in for 25+ minutes and should quite easily return value at $3,000 on DK and maybe even $4,400 on FD (although I’m less confident about that).

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players: 

  • Garrett Temple (CHI)

  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Jarrett Allen (CLE)
  • Larry Nance (CLE)
  • Dylan Windler (CLE)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
  • JJ Redick (DAL)
  • Marvin Bagley (SAC)
  • Serge Ibaka (LAC)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)

Questionable Players: 

  • Zach Lavine (P) - CHI
  • Lauri Makkanen (P) - CHI
  • Coby White (P) - CHI
  • Andre Drummond (P) - LAL
  • Kyle Kuzma (P) - LAL
  • Tyler Herro (P) - MIA
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Maxi Kleber (Q) - DAL
  • Trey Burke (P) - DAL
  • Norman Powell (P) - POR
  • Jusuf Nurkic (Q) - POR

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!