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AC+ NBA 4/06

Announcements

1) We have some extremely exciting announcements coming out this week on a new partnership for Analytic City! New sections will be introduced to our newsletters and new opportunities available for our users! 

2) If you have any questions about how to use any of our tools, DM us on Twitter!

3) If you're looking for an DFS Discord server, we have our very own channel in a group with over 1,000 active DFS members! Join here: DFS Coach/Analytic City Discord!

4) During these next two weeks, there will likely be multiple days where we're unable to update the Datasheets at late as we normally do due to certain time constraints. So, you can always use our "Injury Updates" tab in both of our Spreadsheets to build your lineups with up-to-date injury news. 

Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

4/06 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

4/06 Google Sheets Optimizer/Datasheet

QUICK HITTERS (4/06)

- Today's main slate features 8 games. DET and TOR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v GSW at 237.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v TOR at 208 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Brodgon, Lamb, Sabonis Questionable: Who I like in this game depends completely on whether Brogdon and/or Sabonis play. If they both sit, I would like Levert ($7,200 DK and $8,000 FD), who would be the definite go-to guy for IND. If one of either Sabonis/Brogdon sits and the other plays, I would definitely consider playing the one who plays, especially against a CHI team that’s below average defensively and plays at an above average pace.

VanVleet, Lowry, Hood Out: TOR had very balanced scoring yesterday without their star guards (6 players scored in double figures). But tonight, I still think you have to go back to either Pascal ($8,200 DK and $8,700 FD) or Trent ($6,200 DK and $6,400 FD), who should both see more shot and playmaking opportunities than normal, even against a LAL team that has allowed the 9th fewest PPG to opposing teams.

Zion, Ingram Questionable, Lewis Doubtful, Alexander-Walker, Hart Out: Against the Rockets 2 nights ago, the Pels had 7 players score in double figures without Zion and Ingram in the lineup. If both guys sit again, I think you have to think long and hard about Lonzo ($7,500 DK and FD); he put up 27-9-4 last time out and is infinitely more aggressive without the 2 stars in the lineup. Similar to the Pacers situation, I would play either Zion or Ingram if the other sits. 

Fournier, Thompson Out: I don’t think Fournier’s absence opens up that much in the BOS rotation. The bench guys who come in don’t tend to put up big numbers anyway (besides Fournier), so I don’t think any of them get a huge value boost from Evan sitting.

Murray Questionable: If Murray sits, I like whoever starts in his place to get the biggest value boost tonight; my guess would be Monte Morris ($3,900 DK and $3,800 FD), who’s finally getting more comfortable after returning from his injury. He’s also going up against a DET team that’s poor at defending players with his player profile.

Nurkic Out, Jones Jr. Probable: Without Nurkic, I like Kanter ($6,000 DK and $5,800 FD) to get the start and get around 30 minutes, which gives him a good chance to return value even against a very good LAC defense. He put up 12-4-17 after Nurkic got hurt last game.

4/06 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Pascal Siakam (8,200 DK and 8,700 FD)

Even though he’s going up against a tough defense in the Lakers, I still like Siakam tonight in a game where the Raptors are missing their starting backcourt (Lowry and VanVleet). Without those two, Pascal becomes the go-to scorer for this team and has a solid chance at returning value. I think a lot of TOR guys will have very high ownership tonight, but my guess is that Pascal’s will be the highest, making him a good play in Cash lineups.

Clint Capela (8,600 DK and 9,900 FD) 

Capela is just about the most sure-thing on this ATL team. No matter what happens with Trae and the other scorers on ATL, you can virtually guarantee Clint will put up 15+ and 10+, which is why I like him tonight against a NOP team that gives up the 6th most points in the NBA. I also think Capela dominates on the glass tonight against a team that gives up the most offensive rebounds in the NBA and might be without Ingram and Zion, two of their better rebounders.

Whoever Plays for the NOP (out of Zion, Ingram, and Lonzo)

Zion and Ingram are both questionable tonight (as they have been for the past few games). If one of them sits and one plays, I would play whichever one of them plays (barring news about a minute restriction before the game). Either Ingram or Zion would be the go-to guy for the Pels against an ATL team that gives up the 10th most points in the NBA. If neither guy plays, I would look to get Lonzo in your lineup, who plays with significantly more aggression and offensive confidence without his 2 star teammates in the lineup.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Malachi Flynn (3,900 DK and 5,100 FD) *mostly on DK*

Flynn has been catapulted into the TOR rotation since the absence of Lowry and Vanvleet, and he’s played REALLY well. Last game he played 34 minutes in a close game (3rd on the team behind OG and Siakam) and put up 16-4-6. I like his minutes and opportunities to continue to rise tonight without VanVleet and Lowry in the lineup, and I think he has a great opportunity to smash his $3,900 price tag on DraftKings tonight even against a tough LAL defense.

Monte Morris (3,900 DK and 3,800 FD)

I like Morris a lot more if Murray doesn’t play (obviously), but I still think he’s a solid play even if Jamal is in the lineup. He’s been returning from an injury and is just getting his feet under him, so I expect his minutes to continue to rise no matter what. If Jamal sits, I think there’s a good chance he gets the start tonight, in which case he would potentially be in a smash spot on both sites.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players: 

  • Garrett Temple (CHI)

  • Daniel Theis (CHI)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Patrick McCaw (TOR)
  • Paul Watson (TOR)
  • John Collins (ATL)
  • Deandre Hunter (ATL)
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • George Hill (PHI)
  • De’Anthony Melton (MEM)
  • Justise Winslow (MEM)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Eric Paschall (GSW)
  • PJ Tucker (MIL)
  • Serge Ibaka (LAC)

    Questionable Players: 

    • Coby White (P) - CHI

    • Andre Drummond (Q) - LAL
    • Wesley Matthews (Q) - LAL
    • Brandon Clarke (Q) - MEM
    • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
    • Giannis Antetokounmpo (P) - MIL
    • Patrick Beverley (Q) - LAC

      Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!

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