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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
4/04 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
4/04 Google Sheets Optimizer/Datasheet
QUICK HITTERS (4/04)
- Today's main slate features 4 games. ORL and PHI are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is GSW v ATL at 229 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v DEN at 214 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Embiid, Hill Out: Embiid is sitting on the second night of a back-to-back, which isn’t surprising at all. I expect Dwight ($6,200 DK and $5,800 FD) to get the start in his place, but I don’t love his matchup against a MEM team that is good at guarding powerful bigs like Dwight. I do like Tobias ($8,400 DK and $7,900 FD), whose usage rating and shot attempts will likely increase with Joel sitting. He’s also facing a MEM team that’s the 6th worst team in the NBA at guarding SF/PF.
Collins, Dunn, Hunter, Reddish Out: The prices on this ATL team have adjusted to the extended absence of Collins, making this Hawks team a lot less obvious to predict in a DFS sense. I definitely like Trae ($9,500 DK and $8,700 FD) tonight, though, as he’s coming off of some rest and should be ready to play against his idol (Curry) and a GSW team that plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the league and gives up the 8th most points.
Draymond Questionable, Paschall Out: Without Paschall and potentially Draymond, I think some of the other Warriors players get a boost. My favorite is Curry ($9,800 DK and $9,000 FD), who’s coming off some rest and is going up against an ATL team that is terrible at guarding PG’s like Curry. I expect an exciting Trae v Curry duel tonight.
Wall, Nwaba, Gordon Out: The prices have basically adjusted to Wall being out tonight, but I definitely like Avery Bradley ($3,700 DK and $4,300 FD), who’s fairly cheap and is getting comfortable with his new team (he put up 15-3-6 last game). I think Bradley’s role with the Rockets will only continue to increase, and I like him tonight against a NOP team that gives up the 4th most points in the NBA.
Ball, Ingram, Zion Questionable, Lewis Doubtful, Hart Out: Who I like in this game is completely dependent on whether Zion and/or Ingram play. I’m going to assume they both won’t, as they’ve been questionable the past couple games and haven’t played. In that case, I like James Johnson ($4,300 DK and FD), who is very cheap and played 29 minutes last game while putting up 16-6-4 as basically the primary playmaker for the Pels. I would like either Ingram or Zion if and only if the other doesn’t play.
Who knows what goes on in ORL: ORL (once again) has not released their 1:30pm injury report. You should assume that MCW, Ross, Bamba, Porter, Mane, Birch, and maybe even Ross are all questionable (given that they were last game). ORL is going up against DEN (who plays at the 5th slowest pace and gives up the 9th fewest points), so it’s definitely not a great matchup for anyone on ORL. I could also see this game being a blowout. If they have 8 players like they did yesterday, though, it’s tough to look away from a guy like RJ Hampton ($3,600 DK and $4,000 FD), who would inevitably get a good number of minutes and is playing against his old team.
4/04 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Stephen Curry ($9,800 DK & $9,000 FD)
Not too much went into this decision for tonight. I think you pretty much have to go with Curry in cash lineups with him being under 10K tonight. He’s coming off 2 full days rest, and went for over 50 DK points in the 2 games he played since returning from his injury. The Hawks are a fantastic matchup for him, as they rank 3rd worst in the NBA defending the PG position. The Warriors (and Curry) should come out firing tonight after getting absolutely blown out by the Raptors last game.
Clint Capela ($8,800 DK & $9,000 FD)
Capela is getting really expensive, but I think you have to go there tonight with John Collins still out. He just has such a high ceiling against the Warriors (he went for 18-15 a week ago WITH Collins playing) that fading him could be devastating. I also think he has a pretty safe floor tonight. He’s basically a lock for a double-double and should see 30+ minutes after getting his minutes scaled back last game and a day off yesterday.
This is extremely broad, but there’s no way I don’t have at least one Pelicans player in my lineup tonight. If Zion plays, I think he’s an extremely strong look as your third and final high end cash lock. If he doesn’t I like the idea of going to whoever starts in place of him. If Marshall or Johnson were to somehow draw the start, I like them both at their respective prices. I also think Lonzo ball at 7.1K could be an awesome play tonight if Zion/Ingram were to sit. Overall, I think this situation needs to be monitored going into tonight’s slate of games if you want to be competitive on the slate.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Ja Morant ($7,600 DK & 6,800 FD)
Hopefully you got on my Jrue Holiday call last night, especially after Giannis was ruled out. I think Morant has the chance to do something similar tonight. The sixers have been really bad this season against players with Morant’s player profile, and I expect that to continue again tonight. Memphis has been REALLY competitive lately, and I think Embiid being out speeds this game up even more than it already should. Philly plays at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA, and Morant excels in fast paced environments. Best of all, we project Morant to be owned at ~9% tonight, potentially giving you a huge edge if he has a ceiling performance.
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,800 DK & $6,500 FD)
Wendell has fully taken over the starting center role in Orlando, and he has been VERY productive while doing so, double-doubling in both of his last 2 games. He gets a tougher matchup tonight against Denver, but he simply plays too many minutes and is too involved in the offense to overlook again tonight. He has 40+ point potential and at 5.8K is probably my second favorite center play on the slate behind Capela.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- Justise Winslow (MEM)
- Jaren Jackson (MEM)
- Isaiah Thomas (NOP)
- Cole Anthony (ORL)
Monte Morris (Q) - DEN
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!