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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
Quick Hitters (4/02)
- Today's main slate features 10 games. CHA, GSW, ATL, NOP are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v POR at 239 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DAL v NYK at 212 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Curry Out, Green, Poole Probable: With Curry out on the second night of a back to back, I think you have to look at Andrew Wiggins ($7,500 DK and $7,600 FD); he’s played extremely well without Curry in the lineup and he’s going up against a TOR team that is the worst team in the NBA at guarding the SG/SF position.
Harris, Hood, McCaw, Watson, Lowry Out: Without Lowry again, every single starter on the Raptors (besides Baynes) gets a solid boost. OG ($6,800 DK and $6,600 FD) is probably my favorite play on TOR, especially because he’s going up against a GSW team that isn’t good at guarding players like himself, plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the league, and gives up the 8th most points.
Robinson Out, Bullock, Barrett, Rose Questionable: If Barrett and Bullock were to sit, that would open up 2 starting spots in their lineup. I think Alec Burks ($5,800 DK and $5,600 FD) is the most likely player to get one of the starts, which is why I like him if either Barrett or Bullock sits. I also like Randle ($9,600 DK and $8,900 FD) if Barrett sits, because he becomes the clear primary scorer and would see an increase in his usage.
Lamb, Sabonis Questionable: If Sabonis were to sit, whoever starts in his place would probably get the biggest value boost. My guess is that it would be Doug Mcdermott ($3,800 DK and $3,700 FD), who’s going up against a poor defensive team that plays at an above average pace (CHA). CHA is also the 2nd to worst team in the NBA at guarding SF/PF, which makes Doug an extremely attractive cheap play tonight.
Galinari, Collins, Young Out: Without these three in the lineup, there are tons of shots up for grabs on this ATL team. I definitely like Bogdanovic ($5,700 DK and $5,500 FD), who is one of the only active guys on this Hawks team tonight that can create his own shot. Also, if there was ever a game for Lou Will ($4,400 DK and $4,800 FD) to break out, it would be tonight. The NOP give up the 5th most points in the NBA, and Lou should definitely get some opportunities to score tonight (something he’s quite good at) without Trae and Galo.
Ball, Ingram, Hart, Zion Out: The NOP are once again very thin at the Guard and Wing positions tonight, so most guys on this Pels team become solid plays. Even though Kira Lewis Jr. ($3,700 DK and $4,100 FD) was average last night, I like him a lot tonight; Bledsoe played 46 minutes last night (so I bet he plays fewer tonight) and Hart is out (so I could see Lewis starting). It’s also EXTREMELY tough to look away from James Johnson ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who’s the price minimum on both sites and put up 17-2-3 last night in a start.
Lavine, White Questionable, Temple Out: Without Lavine and White 2 nights ago, the Bulls had some very balanced scoring (5 guys with over 16 points). For this reason, the Bulls players tonight are risky plays, which is why I would take some of the cheaper guys. I like Satoransky ($4,800 DK and $4,900 FD), who’s locked in for 27+ minutes and is playing against a UTA team that is terrible at guarding players like Tomas.
Drummond, Lebron, AD Out, Mathews Questionable: Without Drummond tonight, I think Montrezl ($6,600 DK and $7,300 FD) becomes a solid GPP look. Gasol has been faded out of the lineup for the most part, which makes Montrezl the most appealing healthy Lakers big tonight.
Bazley, Dort, SGA, Jerome, Muscala Out: These guys have been out for at least a couple games, so the prices have adjusted for the most part. Also, the Suns play at the 6th slowest pace and give up the 4th fewest points, so it’s a very tough matchup for this OKC team. That being said, I don't hate looking towards OKC starters if they fit your builds tonight because of the minutes they should get.
4/02 CORE PLAYS
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Lou Williams ($4,400 DK & $4,800 FD)
Trae Young and Danilo Gallinari combined for 71 minutes last night. With them both out tonight, a ton of value should open up for the Hawks. I really like both Bogdanovic and Huerter tonight, but I think the biggest benficienairy is Lou Williams. Williams thrives in high usage roles, and has the ability to create shots for himself at any point. I think he becomes the primary ball handler for the Hawks tonight and plays around 30 minutes. At just $4,400, he is an excellent player to consider locking into cash lineups before optimizing.
Sviatoslav Mykhailuk ($5,200 DK & $3,700 FD)
As is usually the case when the Thunder play, there should be a TON of value in OKC tonight. They draw a tough matchup against Phoenix, but with SGA, Dort, Bazley, Jerome AND Muscala all out, it’s hard to avoid getting at least 1 of them in your cash lineups. I think on DraftKings, I’d prefer to pay up for Moses Brown ($7,200 DK & FD) or Isaiah Roby ($6,100 DK & $5,500 FD). But I had to put Mykhailuk here because of his ridiculous price on FanDuel. Getting a guy who just went for 22-9 in 36 minutes at just 3.7K is a ridiculously good deal, and I think he grades out as my favorite play of the night on FanDuel. For DK, I think you can look at any of the OKC starting 5 if they fit your builds, knowing that they are fairly locked in to play 30ish minutes and see relatively high usage tonight.
Kira Lewis Jr. ($3,700 DK & $4,100 FD) & James Johnson ($3,000 DK & $3,500 FD)
With Zion, Ingram & Hart all out tonight, the Pelicans chalk feels like a pretty safe bet again, especially against a depleted ATL team. Both Lewis and Johnson had big fantasy performances last night, and that was with Hart playing. I have no problem going to any remaining Pelican (NAW, Bledsoe, etc), but these two guys strike me as must plays both being under 4K tonight.
Clint Capela* ($8,100 DK & $7,800 FD)
Capela just played 44 minutes last night, so be sure to keep an eye on the starting lineup and pregame news to make sure he’s good to go. That being said, if he does play, I think his 8K price tag is just way too low for what he should be able to do with John Collins out. He scored over 60 DK points last night, and tonight should be absolutely no different (although it probably won’t go into OT) against the Pelicans, who were just terrorized by Wendell Carter Jr. in an overtime loss.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,800 DK & FD)
Mitchell took a rare game off a couple nights ago, and should be ready to go tonight against the Bulls. I love this matchup for him; the Bulls rank 4th worst in the NBA at defending the SG position, and play at the 8th fastest pace. Before a blowout and his game off, Mitchell had been red hot, going for over 49.5 DK points in 6 straight. I think he comes right back out tonight and picks up where he left off.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 DK & $7,600 FD)
Jonas has finally got 30+ minutes in each of his last 2 games, and boy has he produced. He is an absolute fantasy monster when he plays, and has an incredible matchup tonight against a MIN team that ranks dead last in the NBA at defending the C position, and has been awful against players with Jonas’s same player profile this season. I think Jonas and KAT go back and forth all night long, and like them both as GPP looks tonight if you think this game is a high scoring affair.
Doug McDermott* ($3,800 DK & $3,700 FD)
I still think this is an okay GPP play if Sabonis plays. But if Sabonis sits it becomes my favorite play of the night. In just 23 minutes last time out, McDermott went for 14-3-1, which would easily be enough to get you 5X value on his 3.8K price tag. If Sabonis were to sit, McDermott would likely be looking at 25+ minutes, and should have no problem smashing 5X value against a Charlotte team that ranks worst in the NBA in 3 pointers allowed per game.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
- JJ Redick (DAL)
- Romeo Langford (BOS)
- Semi Ojeleye (BOS)
- Tristan Thompson (BOS)
- Eric Gordon (HOU)
- David Nwaba (HOU)
- Lamelo Ball (CHA)
- Malik Monk (CHA)
- Jaren Jackson (MEM)
- Justise Winslow (MEM)
- Juwan Morgan (UTA)
- Marvin Bagley (SAC)
- PJ Tucker (MIL)
- Nassir Little (POR)
- Abdel Nader (PHO)
- Frank Kaminsky (PHO)
John Wall (Q) - HOU
- Grayson Allen (Q) - MEM
- Josh Okogie (Q) - MIN
- Joe Ingles (P) - UTA
- Hassan Whiteside (Q) - SAC
- Bobby Portis (Q) - MIL
- Jeff Teague (Q) - MIL
- Torrey Craig (Q) - PHO
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!